Bali Tourism Is Surging: What the Data Says—and What It Means for Investors
Bali welcomed 16.4 million visitors in 2024 (+7.9% YoY), split into 6.33m international and ~10.1m domestic—and 2025 is pacing higher. Premium hotel KPIs hit records (avg. occupancy ~75%; ADR up ~10%), while infrastructure and the new Sanur Health SEZ strengthen year-round, higher-spend demand. For investors, that combination supports pricing power (ADR) and calendar stability (occupancy)—the two levers that drive net yield.
Road Genius+2asialink.unimelb.edu.au+2
Why this matters
Tourism demand is the top-line driver for hospitality revenue. When arrivals grow and the mix skews premium, you usually see:
Longer length-of-stay and higher willingness-to-pay → ADR lift
Smoother shoulder seasons → steadier occupancy
Fewer gaps & lower turnover costs → better net yields
Bali is scoring on all three.
1) The headline numbers: volume is back—and bigger
2024 total visitors: 16.4 million (+7.9% YoY), made up of 6.33m international and ~10.1m domestic (domestic ≈ 62% of total).
Independent academic coverage confirms the 6.3m international and 10.1m domestic split for 2024.
2025 momentum: official monthly releases show higher international arrivals vs. the prior year (e.g., May 2025: 602,213 foreign arrivals, +1.86% MoM; Jan–Jul 2025 cumulatively +12.46% YoY).
Takeaway: Bali’s demand base isn’t just recovered—it’s expanding, with a large domestic floor plus growing international traffic.
2) Quality of demand: premium segment is leading
Premium hotel performance is the best proxy for spend and stay quality.
Hotel performance 2024: average occupancy ~75% (+3.3pp YoY), ADR +~10% to ~IDR 2.4m; RevPAR +14%. These are island-wide figures from a recognized hospitality consultancy.
Why investors care: Gains in ADR and occupancy directly compound RevPAR, which—after fees and OpEx—shows up as net yield for professionally managed villas and branded residences.
3) Structural drivers: connectivity, policy, and health/wellness
Connectivity expands. Bali’s airport capacity has been optimized to handle up to ~32 million passengers/year, and by mid-2025 ~52 airlines were operating to DPS, 47 on international routes—supportive for seat supply and route diversity.
Medical/wellness halo. The Sanur International Hospital is now open within the Sanur Health SEZ, positioning Bali as a regional center for medical and wellness travel—segments that extend length-of-stay and skew higher-spend.
National context. Indonesia as a whole saw ~13.9m international arrivals in 2024, with Bali consistently the top provincial draw—an important macro tailwind.
4) Seasonality & source markets: depth—not just spikes
Official releases throughout 2024–2025 show steady contributions from Australia (largest market), plus diversified growth from China, India, South Korea, UK—spreading risk and improving calendar stability.
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali+2Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali+2
Implication: When more markets contribute, peaks smooth out. That supports mid-week base occupancy and fewer vacancy gaps—exactly what underwriting prefers.
5) The sustainability angle (and why it’s good for investors)
Bali introduced a tourist levy and has tightened rules to manage overtourism. Major outlets report authorities are pushing for “quality tourism”—fewer externalities, more spend per visitor. For investors, this policy stance can protect ADR and preserve destination equity long-term.
6) From demand to returns: how we underwrite (in plain English)
Revenue drivers
ADR (Average Daily Rate): influenced by positioning (coastal prime vs. secondary), design, operator, proximity to wellness/SEZ nodes, and season.
Occupancy: driven by airlift, macro demand, and ops quality (pricing, distribution, reputation management).
Cost stack (typical buckets)
Operator/management fee, OTA commissions, utilities, maintenance, insurance, local taxes/levies, reserves (FF&E & capex).
Ownership model (leasehold vs. PT PMA freehold) shapes legal/administrative overhead.
Modeling principle: We set conservative base cases for ADR/Occ by asset and submarket, validate with operator comps, and run ±10% sensitivities on both. Sanur/SEZ-related uplift is treated as optionality, not base. (If you want the spreadsheet, grab the memo below.)
7) Risks—stated upfront (and mitigations we prefer)
Policy shifts / compliance. Bali is actively managing tourism; always operate licensed with vetted partners.
Supply waves. A controlled pipeline is healthy; we assess micro-location and operator caliber to defend ADR.
Airlift volatility. We track route announcements/load factors; a wider airline mix (52 carriers to DPS) is a mitigating factor.
Investor takeaways
Depth of demand: 2024 was a volume high (16.4m), with 2025 pacing higher—crucially supported by domestic travelers who anchor the base.
Quality of demand: Premium KPIs (occ/ADR) hit records—evidence of pricing power and a resilient calendar.
Structural support: Airport capacity & routes + Sanur Health SEZ extend stays and lift spend.
Policy direction: A tilt toward “quality tourism” protects long-term destination value.
TIME
Bottom line: For licensed, professionally operated villas and branded residences in prime submarkets, Bali’s current cycle supports stable occupancy and healthy ADR—the foundations of durable net yield.
FAQ (fast answers for busy investors)
Are “16.4m visitors” unique people?
No—these are arrivals (trips). International arrivals are counted via immigration; domestic via airport/port stats and official surveys.
Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia
How is 2025 tracking so far?
Monthly BPS releases show YoY growth in foreign arrivals (e.g., May 2025: 602k; Jan–Jul 2025 +12.46% vs. 2024).
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali+1
Which markets matter most?
Australia leads by share; China, India, South Korea, UK provide diversified demand—good for calendar health.
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali+1
Does overtourism risk future returns?
Bali’s push for quality tourism (levies, enforcement) seeks to sustain ADR and protect the brand—positive for well-positioned assets.
Sources & further reading
Bali totals & YoY: RoadGenius compilation of BPS Bali data (2024 16.4m total; +7.9% YoY; 6.33m intl; 10.1m domestic).
Split confirmation (intl/domestic): Asialink, University of Melbourne.
Official trend data: BPS Bali monthly press releases (examples: June 2024, July 2024, May 2025).
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali+2Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Bali+2
2025 YTD growth: Antara News wire (Jan–Jul 2025 +12.46% YoY).
Hotel KPIs: Horwath HTL (Bali Hotel & Branded Residences Report, Mar 2025).
Airport capacity & airlines: Tempo (capacity to ~32m pax/year), Antara News (52 airlines to DPS by June 2025).
Sanur Health SEZ / Hospital: Travel Weekly Asia coverage.
Policy / quality tourism: TIME Magazine (overview of levy and enforcement).
Methodology & disclaimer
Figures referenced are arrivals, not unique individuals. Island-level KPIs are not project results. We underwrite asset-by-asset with conservative assumptions, validated with operator comps and ±10% sensitivity on ADR/occupancy.
